Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

048
FXUS61 KCAR 031426
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
926 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level through will remain to our north across eastern
Canada through today. Low pressure will rapidly approach from
the northwest on Wednesday and cross the area Thursday. Low
pressure then deepens over the Maritimes on Friday while ridging
builds over the forecast area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925 am update...
Vort max currently dropping into northern Saskatchewan will be
our next winter storm due in on Wednesday night. For today
though, other than a few flurries, all is quiet on the eastern
front. Only update was to bring in latest temps and dwpts.

Previous Discussion...
A weak upper level ridge and surface trof will bring moisture
into the region today. Vort models indicate a vort max over the
area by the afternoon. Upper air model soundings show a very
moist mid and upper level column, thus cloud cover has been
extending in the north to the Central Highlands. Though the
surface will be fairly dry, decided to include flurries across
the north. Temps will be cold in the mid to upper 20s.

By tonight, The weak upper level trof will move through the
region. High res models show some snow showers moving through
the Central Highlands off the higher terrain. Though Froude
number approach 1 during the evening and early night, the light
NW flow decreases confidence of snow plumes developing. This
will be another night of light winds, cloud cover, and current
snow pack keeping temps in the teens for the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A narrow ridge of high pressure will slide through the region on
Wednesday, while cool temperatures remain in place as lows lift
into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Skies could begin to cloud over
late Wednesday afternoon ahead of the approaching low pressure
from the west into Wednesday night.

A quick moving Alberta Clipper will approach the forecast area
Wednesday night, crossing through the CWA on Thursday, and
pulling away into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night. Ahead
of the approaching low, a tightening pressure gradient combined
with the return flow around the backside of the retreating high
pressure will lead to strengthening southeasterly winds
Wednesday night. Precip is likely to move into the area by late
Wednesday night, and may begin as all snow through the area
before warm southerly advection raises temperatures and leads to
precip changing over to rain for the Downeast and Bangor areas.
What could still change in this forecast is how warm
temperatures could lift on Thursday, as warm air advection will
be competing with evaporational cooling from moderate precip
rates. If high temperatures peak only a few degrees cooler, it
could be enough to keep precip as all snow in some Downeast
areas or around Bangor, which would increase expected totals.

Another factor in the forecast for this winter storm is the
winds. Strong winds are possible as the storm moves into the
area, fracturing snowflake structure and leading to a denser but
slower to accumulate snowfall. That said, as the trough axis
crosses the forecast area, a lull in the winds is expected,
while snow continues to fall, which could bring about a layer of
fluffier snow that accumulates more quickly Thursday afternoon.
But as the backside of the trough enters the area, the pressure
gradient aloft will tighten once more, and strong westerly winds
could not only fracture falling snowflakes leading to a slower
accumulation rate, but also loft freshly fallen snow into
Thursday night. There are still many factors at play for where
the chance for blowing snow will be most likely, as if an area
switches to rain, the snow will likely be too wet to loft. That
said, there could be areas of blowing snow across the north
Thursday night, which may limit visibility and make travel
difficult even behind the storm.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Snow showers which may linger across the north will continue to
taper off through the day on Friday, though winds will remain
gusty behind the recent storm, and patchy blowing snow may
linger. Westerly cold air advection will aid in temperatures
dropping back into the 20s once more. By Friday night, as a
ridge of high pressure begins to work into the area and winds
relax, temperatures could make a run for the single digits
across the north, especially after freshly fallen snow and under
mostly clear skies.

The ridge of high pressure may not last long, with another
clipper system approaching from the west on Sunday, then quickly
passing over the area. Current guidance suggests this next
system may be less robust, with some snow showers quickly
crossing the CWA. For now, this low pressure looks to be
moisture starved enough to not risk more than a nuisance snow
to the north, and maybe some light rain closer to the coast, but
will be closely monitored as we get closer in time to this
potential.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions for all terminals this morning.
For north terminals VFR/MVFR this afternoon with lowering cigs.
Conditions will return to VFR for all terminals by tonight.
Light WNW winds today and tonight.


SHORT TERM:
Wed...Generally VFR, with northern terminals lowering towards
MVFR as skies become OVC. Light S winds.

Wed night...Conditions rapidly dropping to IFR/LIFR from south
to north as snow moves in. SE winds 5 to 10 kts. Southerly LLWS
likely.

Thurs...IFR/LIFR in snow. Snow may change to rain south and
east of a line roughly from BGR to potentially as far north as
HUL, though low cigs will continue. Winds shifting SW through
the day 5 to 10 kts with gusts increasing to 20 kts.

Thurs night...Downeast terminals improving to VFR, while
northern terminals remain MVFR/IFR. Increasing W winds 10 to 20
kts with gusts 25 to 35 kts.

Fri...Improving towards VFR across all terminals. W winds 10 to
15 kts gusting 20 to 30 kts, with LLWS possible.

Fri night - Sat...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions today
and tonight.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will both steadily increase through
the day on Wednesday, with gusts likely reaching gale strength
by late Wednesday night. Seas through this time could lift
towards 7 to 10 ft. Though there could be a brief lull in the
winds Thursday afternoon as a trough axis swings overhead, gale
force winds are likely to return by Thursday night, and last
through the end of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late
     Thursday night for MEZ001-002-004>006-010-031.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/LaFlash
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Buster/LaFlash/AStrauser
Marine...Buster/LaFlash/AStrauser